Predictions for 2017

SlateStarCodex puts out predictions for 2017 with confidences. I love the idea, so I’ve hijacked the first few sections and replaced them with my own estimates. I’ve put periods at the end of guesses different from Scott’s.

WORLD EVENTS
1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 70%.
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%.
4. …in any First World country: 90%.
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
7. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%
8. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 80%.
9. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%
10. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 50%.
11. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60%
12. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 95%.
13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 60%.
14. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%
15. Libya to remain a mess: 80%
16. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%
17. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tienanmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%
18. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%
19. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%
20. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 95%.
21. EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 50%.
22. A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 90%.
23. A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work: 70%.
24. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%
25. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 70%.
26. Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%

EUROPE
27. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 90%.
28. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%.
29. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
30. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80%
31. The UK triggers Article 50: 70%.
32. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 80%
33. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 70%
34. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80%
35. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 90%.

ECONOMICS
36. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 40%.
37. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%
38. …but lower than $60 a barrel: 50%.
39. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 80%. (assumed for this and below that he means price indexes as measured from Jan 1-Dec 31)
40. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 70%.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 95%.
42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80%.
43. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 70%.
44. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 95%.
45. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 30%.
46. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 50%.
47. US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 90%
48. US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 95%
49. No race riot killing > 5 people: 95%
50. US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: 60%.
51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 90%.
52. …lower than forty percent: 60%