How Much You Know

Most areas of life with any appreciable level of nuance involved share a growth trajectory that looks like this:

This applies to sports, finance, and life in general. It’s critical to avoid taking advice from people in the shaded area, or what I call the “‘Thanks for the tip’ zone”.

Unfortunately for people to the left of the TftT-zone, because people in the zone are often more certain about what they think they know than people to the right of it, it can appear that people you shouldn’t be taking advice from are the real experts.

When trying to learn something new, it’s critical to make sure the people you’re learning from are living on the right side of the graph. When you get unsolicited advice from someone in the zone, tell them “thanks for the tip”, and let it go in one ear and out the other.

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