Happy 4th of July – on this most American of holidays please remember to give thanks for the fact that we have the Fed and not the ECB.
- Scott Alexander with one of his trademark posts that is highly enjoyable to read in and of itself, but also applies to a whole class of things in a thought-provoking way. This post is about effects of parenting, but the bigger theme is studies not dealing with limitations that seem relatively easy to overcome (hence the title of Scott’s post). The best part about this post is that it isn’t about replication. Maybe I’m a replication crisis hipster at this point, but complaining about it doesn’t seem cool any more.
Let’s see what the study’s Limitations section has to say about this:
We calculated 42 tests and did not adjust for multiple comparisons.
Why would you do this? If NASA preceded their missions with statements like “We are launching a rocket to Jupiter, but we did not adjust for the fact that it is very far away,” we would stop taking them seriously. But for some reason in the social sciences it’s okay?
- Timothy Taylor with a post about how (perhaps contrary to popular opinion?) the government is more about transfer payments than about provision of goods and services: Generally speaking this seems like a good thing to me, as the government is demonstrably bad at providing goods and services and there are seemingly fewer ways to be terrible at making transfer payments. Whether those transfers are done in thoughtful or intelligent ways or whether they ought to be making them at all is a question for another day.
Now the federal government is spending about 7-8% of GDP on “government consumption expenditures and gross investment,” which is now less than state and local government spending of about 10% of GDP in this category.
- Bob Seawright put out his Q2 2016 market monitor figures: fun to look at mean reversion in real time and let the brain find patterns that probably aren’t there.
Can we create a firm…….
Where there are minimal politics
That has a very low turnover
That has a very high morale and high productivity…
[follow link above for the rest]
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